Case study
A multi-stage strategic decision-making game with the participation of several dozen experts for a defence industry think-tank
Obszar: Preparation
Metody: Decision Making
The task:
Our client was a well-known national security think-tank. For the purposes of compiling a recommendation as to the development of military potential and thus also the development of strategic deterrence, the client expressed the need for a realistic outside security threat scenario which would test the potential for escalation and deescalation for a given structure of effectors (i. a. submarine cruise missiles, rocket artillery, special forces).
Our solution:
4CF chose a comprehensive approach, which encompassed a study project, a proprietary scenario generating process, the facilitation and moderation of the game and reporting. We carried out a decision-making game, the mechanics to which were a creative reworking of “The Day After” method, used i. a. By RAND. Leading Polish security and international relations experts participated in the game and it was based on a hypothetical security crisis in the Baltic States. It was a pioneer study on a national scale due to its dual nature: it combined analytical workshops and political/military simulations.
The effects from the client’s perspective:
Thanks to 4CF, the client was the first think-tank in Poland to present an objective, in-depth and original scenario of a hypothetical security crisis in the Baltic States to a wide circle of experts. The scenario served as a basis for recommendations as to defence policies.