4CF Surf the Future

I recommend 4CF as a dependable partner in Strategic Foresight and Futures Literacy for policy-making and Strategy.

Riel Miller, Foresight Director,

Project results as well as the process whereby they were obtained have me convinced as to the professionalism and innovativeness of 4CF on the Polish market.

Krystian Chmielewski, VicePresident
Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace Polska

4CF provided foresight expertise at a highest level of professional skill.

Alberte Ruud, Senior Advisor,
Norwegian Public Road Administration

4CF experts successfully implemented a Real-Time Delphi tool - HalnyX - for the needs of an expert study.

Irena Pichola, Partner, Member of the Board,
Deloitte Advisory Sp. z o.o.

4CF offers the highest quality of Business Foresight services

Marcin Kubajczyk, Marketing Director,
Hoop Polska
Case study

A multi-stage strategic decision-making game with the participation of several dozen experts for a defence industry think-tank

Obszar: Preparation
Metody: Decision Making

Strategia i program rozwoju

The task:

Our client was a well-known national security think-tank. For the purposes of compiling a recommendation as to the development of military potential and thus also the development of strategic deterrence, the client expressed the need for a realistic outside security threat scenario which would test the potential for escalation and deescalation for a given structure of effectors (i. a. submarine cruise missiles, rocket artillery, special forces).

Our solution:

4CF chose a comprehensive approach, which encompassed a study project,  a proprietary scenario generating process, the facilitation and moderation of the game and reporting. We carried out a decision-making game, the mechanics to which were a creative reworking of “The Day After” method, used i. a. By RAND. Leading Polish security and international relations experts participated in the game and it was based on a hypothetical security crisis in the Baltic States. It was a pioneer study on a national scale due to its dual nature: it combined analytical workshops and political/military simulations.  

The effects from the client’s perspective:

Thanks to 4CF, the client was the first think-tank in Poland to present  an objective, in-depth and original scenario of a hypothetical security crisis in the Baltic States to a wide circle of experts. The scenario served as a basis for recommendations as to defence policies.