4CF Surf the Future

I recommend 4CF as a dependable partner in Strategic Foresight and Futures Literacy for policy-making and Strategy.

Riel Miller, Foresight Director,

Project results as well as the process whereby they were obtained have me convinced as to the professionalism and innovativeness of 4CF on the Polish market.

Krystian Chmielewski, VicePresident
Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace Polska

4CF provided foresight expertise at a highest level of professional skill.

Alberte Ruud, Senior Advisor,
Norwegian Public Road Administration

4CF experts successfully implemented a Real-Time Delphi tool - HalnyX - for the needs of an expert study.

Irena Pichola, Partner, Member of the Board,
Deloitte Advisory Sp. z o.o.

4CF offers the highest quality of Business Foresight services

Marcin Kubajczyk, Marketing Director,
Hoop Polska
Case study

Quantitative sales forecasting for FMCG

Obszar: Exploration
Metody: Statistical Modelling, HalnyX Delphi Platform

Ilościowe prognozy sprzedaży

The task:

Our client was Hoop Poland, a large water and soft-drink producer. They needed data which would improve their marketing expenditures management and provide objective verification as to the efficiency of the adopted sales strategy. There are many companies on the market which provide price-research services, but only a small number of these would go beyond market tests and consumer research. The market analysts who had previously cooperated with our client were not able to carry out the task and media agencies did not meet the crucial requirement of objectivity. Additionally, our client wanted to automatize the planning process based on regular updates of sales and marketing data as to their key products and competitors.

Our solution:

The solution of the customer’s problem was to use econometric modeling methods to decompose sales data. Based on the client’s own data, as well as competitive and media data that they had purchased,  we designed equations which described the relative importance of specific sales affecting factors, including the weather (temperature) and the promotional activity of competitors.

The effects from the client’s perspective:

The client learned the extent of particular factors’ influence on sales results. The analysed factors included seasonality, promotions, distribution, price policy and competitors’ actions. The results were supported by specific data and opened the possibility to predict the results of future campaigns, such predictions being crucial for successful production and marketing strategy. The client, furthermore, received our proprietary software, Precog, which can be used to predict sales results for given scenarios  based on a number of key variables.