4CF Surf the Future

I recommend 4CF as a dependable partner in Strategic Foresight and Futures Literacy for policy-making and Strategy.

Riel Miller, Foresight Director,

Project results as well as the process whereby they were obtained have me convinced as to the professionalism and innovativeness of 4CF on the Polish market.

Krystian Chmielewski, VicePresident
Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace Polska

4CF provided foresight expertise at a highest level of professional skill.

Alberte Ruud, Senior Advisor,
Norwegian Public Road Administration

4CF experts successfully implemented a Real-Time Delphi tool - HalnyX - for the needs of an expert study.

Irena Pichola, Partner, Member of the Board,
Deloitte Advisory Sp. z o.o.

4CF offers the highest quality of Business Foresight services

Marcin Kubajczyk, Marketing Director,
Hoop Polska
Case study

The development of a methodology for long-term prognoses and the organisation of a training workshop for the Chief Inspectorate of Environmental Protection in Poland

Obszar: Foresight Culture
Metody: Consulting

Strategia i program rozwoju

The task:

The Chief Inspectorate of Environmental Protection issues a report on the state of the environment every four years. Following directives, such reports should contain prognoses of approaching changes. The task had previously been carried out only partially, due to the complexity of the issue and the resulting methodological challenges. Our task was not only to improve the methodology and to train the Inspectorate’s employees but also to expand the reports by adding prognostic information as to the approaching changes within the environment. These prognoses were to take into account social, economical, political and technological changes to the system.

Our solution:

The 4CF team drew from years of experience in the area of foresight. We also as analysed top worldwide approaches to reporting on the state of the environment and global environmental prognoses. As a result we developed a methodology of utilising concept maps in the DPSIR model for analysing possible environmental changes, both short- and long-term. The proposed methodology was tested in the course of a pilot workshop which was attended by the Inspectorate’s employees. Finally, we compiled a handbook and trained the Inspectorate’s team to use the proposed methods.

The effects from the client’s perspective:

Firstly, as a result of the cooperation, the client gained the knowledge on how to effectively incorporate the complex environmental changes, their speed, dynamics and uncertainty into periodic environmental status reports. Thus, future reports will not only constitute a valuable diagnosis of the status quo but will also become an important element in the shaping of informed plans: plans which take into account the future consequences of today’s decisions, and change scenarios and which integrate environmental assessments with socio-economic issues.
Secondly, with the help of 4CF experts, the Inspectorate was able to perform a simulation of the multi-stage process described in the handbook: both to gain the practical knowledge necessary to independently utilize the developed methodology and to enhance the team’s long-term planning skills.
The study can be found here.