4CF Surf the Future

The Unexpected future: Cybersecurity

The future of cyber security is not a foregone conclusion – it is shaped jointly by many entities. So how to gain strategic advantage and surprise the competition without being surprised by yourself? The 4CF matrix is a proven tool to support long-term strategic analysis in a wide range of fields (from FMCG, medical and banking to military applications).

It is usually used to analyze a specific organization in relation to its strategic objectives, market segments and needs. It helps to develop a development plan based on insights into the future that are inaccessible to competitors. The presented version of the report is open and universal, but it still contains a lot of information about solutions that should not be ignored – it is worth treating as an invitation to an in-depth analysis from one’s own perspective ̎firmy The level of cybersecurity in the next decade, as well as the measures to ensure it, will be influenced by a number of change factors, the most important of which have been analysed and grouped into clusters defining four scenarios for the future.

One of them is a continuation scenario, corresponding to a simple extrapolation of trends. The other three scenarios describe versions of the future in which one or more of the current trends will change, significantly modifying the conditions of the game. The scenarios are presented from both an institutional and consumer perspective. We would like to thank the experts who wanted to get involved in the preparation of this report: Colonel Grzegorz Małecki from the Kazimierz Pułaski Foundation, Tomek Jędrkiewicz from PTBRiO, Aleksandra Świączkowska, Karol Chwastowski and Marcin Strzelecki. The report was published in partnership with NASK as part of the celebration of the European Cyber Security Month (ECSM).

We encourage you to read the report – the full version can be downloaded using the button below.