I recommend 4CF as a dependable partner in Strategic Foresight and Futures Literacy for policy-making and Strategy.

Riel Miller, Foresight Director, UNESCO

Project results as well as the process whereby they were obtained have me convinced as to the professionalism and innovativeness of 4CF on the Polish market.

Krystian Chmielewski, VicePresident Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace Polska

4CF provided foresight expertise at a highest level of professional skill.

Alberte Ruud, Senior Advisor, Norwegian Public Road Administration

4CF experts successfully implemented a Real-Time Delphi tool - HalnyX - for the needs of an expert study.

Irena Pichola, Partner, Member of the Board, Deloitte Advisory Sp. z o.o.

4CF offers the highest quality of Business Foresight services

Marcin Kubajczyk, Marketing Director, Hoop Polska
Methodology

The Delphi Method

 

Obszar: Exploration, Shaping

Case studies: 

Metoda Delficka

Applications:  Gathering expert opinions on subjects such as future developments in technology, markets and territories. It also serves as a tool which helps in reaching and evaluating short- and long-term decisions.  

The Delphi Method was developed in the 1950s and 1960s in the United States by the RAND project as an aid for decision-making and analytical military institutions in assessing the contemporary situation. It is now a key tool in strategic foresight and modern strategic management. It allows expert groups to find a consensus with regard to the analysed issues within a short time. The results of the study are relatively unaffected by psychological, rhetorical or sociological factors which usually have a negative effect on group discussion. Taking this into consideration, it is not surprising that the Delphi method has been used in classified US Air Force projects to reach a consensus among senior officers, academics, civil experts and decision makers. Since then, it has proven its worth in thousands of civilian projects, in areas such as  education, technology development, spatial planning, conservation of natural resources or regional development planning.

The real-time Delphi study is an enhanced version of the method, originally developed for DARPA in 2004 in order to increase the speed and efficiency of multi-expert decision-making. It is a significant time-saver, as it replaces traditional surveys collected in rounds with ongoing, continuous processing of the participants’ responses on the server. Thus, the “discussion” in the online tool is continuous, allowing for a more in-depth analysis of the topic, and resulting in a clearer consensus among experts on more precise answers to research questions known as the Delphi Theses. Participants can access the study as often as they wish, each time receiving information as to the current status of the discussion and rating values. They may add new arguments and change previously stated opinions. Real-time Delphi studies have been well tested over the past decade in prestigious projects on hundreds of topics around the world.

At 4CF we use an advanced fourth generation Delphi Platform (Smart Delphi). Find out more about the HalnyX Delphi Platform.  

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